Did you miss out on Mansur Gavriel's flash sale on May 14th? Were you warming up your fast finger and page refreshes well before 11am, but still found yourself staring at a completely sold out site at 11:02 with your basket emptied? You are not alone. That's why Part 1 is breaking down the odds of what you're up against. Part 2 will cover strategies so you can arm yourself with readiness for the next dot com sale.
First off, a disclaimer: I'm not a mathematician or professional analyst. The numbers used in this post are either calculated assumptions or rounded values based on the information that's available and public to me (and you) on the web.
What are the chances of scoring a bag?
Before we answer this question, let's first create lay out some baselines and assumptions. Since, the bucket bag is currently their most coveted bag, we'll be mostly looking at that for this example.
In this explanation, let's assume a bag's style is comprised of three different parts: size, exterior, and interior. For example, the most popular style is the original-sized bucket bag with an black veggie-tanned exterior and flamma interior. Now, I've skimmed the Mansur Gavriel product catalog it's safe to say the website has about 150 different styles of bucket bags (canvas and calf-skinned all included).
According to the Business of Fashion, MG only works with one trusted factory to product the high quality bags you know and love. Because they are a small company, let's also assume they decide to carry an arbitrary 100** of each style to keep their holding costs low. This would hypothetically put them at 15,000 bucket bags for sale in their web shop on May 14th.
While most analytics sites aren't 100% accurate, let's make the most of it as this is what we have access to! According to Compete.com, there were two spikes in monthly unique visitors at mansurgavriel.com— once in December and once in March. These were MG's last two flash sales occurring before the May 14th sale.
At the exact moment that I'm writing this article, SimilarWeb charts the United States for making up 58% of the website's traffic. If we consider March's unique visitor count from the U.S. as 58% of visitors, we can estimate there may have been around 186k visitors worldwide in March. Although unrealistic, if every unique visitor in March also tried to shop the sale, that would mean only 8% of visitors could score a bucket bag of any style (also assuming everyone abides by the one bag per person rule). Our assumptions would also suggest that if they only carry 100 of each style, only 0.05% of customers could score a regular-sized bucket bag in Black / Flamma.
As of now, May numbers haven't been released, but it's very likely there was an increase in visitors. March's unique visitors doubled December's visitors, so it wouldn't be surprising if we saw another jump. If there was any increase at all, your chances are even lower in our hypothetical situation.
One thing the Mansur Gavriel team could do to meet demands is to increase their production levels and add more staffing. But then would the overall quality decrease? It's probable. Would it be the same highly sought after bag it is today? Absolutely not.
Maybe the chances seem low, but it doesn't mean you can't or shouldn't try!! Don't forget to come back and check out Part 2 tomorrow on some of our Mansur Gavriel shopping strategies and tips.